Energy modellers and researchers have developed a geospatial mapping model they say can help address the electricity access gap in Africa.
The model has been developed by the International Energy Agency (IEA), researchers at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, University of Massachusetts Amherst and Electricity Growth and Use In Developing Economies.
By mapping which buildings are likely to already have access to electricity today and which do not, the tool also estimates the current or anticipated electricity needs for every building in a country. This open-source model uses satellite images and available footprints of all buildings across Africa , then pairs that with the utility meter data on electricity consumption matched to the geolocation of that building or community. The model then uses Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms to learn from high-resolution images of buildings, identifying the patterns that best correlate their image and location to a certain level of energy demand.
The IEA said while impossible to ascertain exactly, the algorithms likely pick up on details that signify whether the building is urban or rural, residential or commercial. It will also detect if the community is connected by major roads to markets which could signify relatively high income and ability to pay. “When tested, the model was able to identify which buildings have electricity today with over 80% accuracy and provides a 40% error reduction when estimating electricity demand of buildings over the state-of-the-art tools commonly used today.”
The IEA said this tool can, accordingly, be applied to satellite images of entire countries, and produce a significantly improved estimate for planners, utilities and off-grid solar companies to identify target customers and communities.
