The tool, PrevisIA, is an artificial intelligence platform created by researchers at environmental nonprofit Imazon. Instead of trying to repair damage done by deforestation after the fact, they wanted to find a way to prevent it from happening at all. According to SAD, Imazon’s Deforestation Alert System, deforestation this March tripled compared to the same month last year, and the first quarter of 2023 saw 867 sq km of rainforest destroyed – the second largest area felled in the past 16 years. The idea for PrevisIA emerged in 2016, when the team at Imazon analysed data collected from SAD satellite images. Tired of getting notifications after large swaths of forest had already been cleared, they asked themselves: is it possible to generate short-term deforestation prediction models? The model takes a two-pronged approach. First, it focuses on trends present in the region, looking at geostatistics and historical data from Prodes, the annual government monitoring system for deforestation in the Amazon. Understanding what has happened can help make predictions more precise. When already deforested areas are recent, this indicates gangs are operating in the area, so there’s a higher risk that nearby forest will soon be wiped out. Second, it looks at variables that put the brakes on deforestation – land protected by Indigenous and quilombola (descendent of rebel slaves) communities, and areas with bodies of water, or other terrain that doesn’t lend itself to agricultural expansion, for instance – and variables that make deforestation more likely, including higher population density, the presence of settlements and rural properties, and higher density of road infrastructure, both legal and illegal.
